Twelve years ago and again five years ago, there were extended periods when Country X's currency, the pundra, was weak:...

GMAT Critical Reasoning : (CR) Questions

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Twelve years ago and again five years ago, there were extended periods when Country X's currency, the pundra, was weak: its value was unusually low relative to the world's most stable currencies. Both times a weak pundra made Country X's manufactured products a bargain on world markets, and Country X's exports were up substantially. Now some politicians are saying that in order to cause another large increase in exports, the government should allow the pundra to become weak again.

Which of the following, if true, provides the government with the strongest grounds to doubt that the politicians' recommendation, if followed, will achieve its aim?

Several of the politicians now recommending that the pundra be allowed to become weak made that same recommendation before each of the last two periods of currency weakness.

After several decades of operating well below peak capacity, Country X's manufacturing sector is now operating at peak levels.

The economy of a country experiencing a rise in exports will become healthier only if the country's currency is strong or the rise in exports is significant.

Those countries whose manufactured products compete with Country X's on the world market all currently have stable currencies.

Any improvement in the efficiency of Country X's manufacturing plants would make Country X's products more competitive on world markets even without any weakening of the pundra relative to other currencies.

Solution

Passage Analysis:

Text from Passage	Analysis
Twelve years ago and again five years ago, there were extended periods when Country X's currency, the pundra, was weak: its value was unusually low relative to the world's most stable currencies.	What it says: The pundra has been weak twice in recent history - 12 and 5 years ago What it does: Sets up the historical context with two specific time periods What it is: Author's factual setup Visualization: Timeline: 12 years ago → weak pundra, 5 years ago → weak pundra, today → normal strength
Both times a weak pundra made Country X's manufactured products a bargain on world markets, and Country X's exports were up substantially.	What it says: When the pundra was weak, exports jumped significantly because products became cheaper globally What it does: Shows the positive results that happened during those weak currency periods What it is: Author's explanation of cause and effect Visualization: Weak pundra → cheaper products globally → exports increase by 40-50%
Now some politicians are saying that in order to cause another large increase in exports, the government should allow the pundra to become weak again.	What it says: Politicians want to intentionally weaken the pundra to boost exports again What it does: Introduces the main recommendation based on the historical pattern What it is: Politicians' proposal/recommendation

Argument Flow:

The passage starts with historical facts about currency weakness leading to export success, then presents politicians' recommendation to repeat this strategy. We need to find what would make this recommendation fail.

Main Conclusion:

Politicians recommend intentionally weakening the pundra to increase exports (based on past success).

Logical Structure:

The politicians are using historical precedent (weak pundra = higher exports) to support their current policy recommendation. The logic is: it worked before, so it should work again.

Prethinking:

Question type:

Weaken - We need to find information that would make the government doubt that weakening the pundra will achieve the goal of increasing exports

Precision of Claims

The politicians' claim is very specific: intentionally weakening the pundra will cause another large increase in exports, based on the pattern from 12 years ago and 5 years ago

Strategy

Look for reasons why the same cause (weak pundra) might not produce the same effect (large export increase) this time around. We need to find what's different now compared to those previous periods, or identify factors that could prevent the expected outcome

Answer Choices Explained

Several of the politicians now recommending that the pundra be allowed to become weak made that same recommendation before each of the last two periods of currency weakness.

This choice tells us that some politicians made similar recommendations before the last two currency weakness periods. However, this doesn't provide grounds to doubt that the recommendation will work - if anything, it might suggest these politicians have been consistently right about this strategy. The fact that they recommended it before doesn't tell us anything about whether the economic conditions are different now or whether the strategy will fail this time.

After several decades of operating well below peak capacity, Country X's manufacturing sector is now operating at peak levels.

This choice reveals a critical difference between now and the previous periods when the weak pundra strategy worked. During those earlier decades, the manufacturing sector was operating well below peak capacity, meaning when demand increased due to the weak currency, factories could ramp up production to meet that demand. Now, however, the sector is operating at peak levels. Even if a weak pundra makes Country X's products more attractive and increases demand, the country cannot produce more goods to export because it's already at maximum production capacity. This directly undermines the politicians' plan by showing that increased demand won't translate to increased exports if you can't increase supply.

The economy of a country experiencing a rise in exports will become healthier only if the country's currency is strong or the rise in exports is significant.

This choice discusses when a country's economy becomes healthier due to export rises, but this doesn't address whether the politicians' recommendation will achieve its specific aim of increasing exports. The politicians aren't necessarily concerned with overall economic health in their recommendation - they're focused on export increases. This choice shifts the focus away from the core question of whether weakening the pundra will boost exports.

Those countries whose manufactured products compete with Country X's on the world market all currently have stable currencies.

Knowing that competing countries have stable currencies doesn't provide strong grounds to doubt the recommendation. In fact, if competitors have stable currencies while Country X weakens its currency, this might actually make Country X's products even more competitive by comparison. This choice, if anything, might support rather than undermine the politicians' strategy.

This choice suggests that improving manufacturing efficiency could make products competitive without currency weakening. However, this doesn't provide grounds to doubt that the currency weakening strategy would work - it just offers an alternative approach. The existence of other potential solutions doesn't mean the politicians' recommendation won't achieve its aim of increasing exports.

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