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Supply shortages and signs of growing demand are driving cocoa prices upward. Unusually severe weather in cocoa-producing regions—too much rain in Brazil and too little in West Africa—has limited production. Further, Europe and North America recently reported stronger demand for cocoa. In the first quarter, grinding of cocoa beans—the first stage in processing cocoa for chocolate—rose 8.1 percent in Europe and 16 percent in North America. Analysts have concluded that cocoa's price will continue to rise at least into the near future.
Which of the following would, if true, most strengthen the reasoning above?
| Text from Passage | Analysis |
| Supply shortages and signs of growing demand are driving cocoa prices upward. |
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| Unusually severe weather in cocoa-producing regions—too much rain in Brazil and too little in West Africa—has limited production. |
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| Further, Europe and North America recently reported stronger demand for cocoa. |
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| In the first quarter, grinding of cocoa beans—the first stage in processing cocoa for chocolate—rose 8.1 percent in Europe and 16 percent in North America. |
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| Analysts have concluded that cocoa's price will continue to rise at least into the near future. |
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The argument starts with a broad claim about cocoa prices rising, then systematically provides evidence for both sides of the equation - supply problems (weather issues) and demand increases (higher processing numbers). Finally, it presents the analysts' conclusion that this trend will continue.
Cocoa prices will continue to rise at least into the near future.
The argument uses a cause-and-effect structure where supply shortages (weather problems limiting production) plus increased demand (higher grinding numbers in Europe and North America) logically leads to continued price increases. The evidence directly supports each part of the price equation.
Strengthen - We need to find information that makes the analysts' conclusion (that cocoa prices will continue to rise) more believable and well-supported.
The conclusion is specifically about cocoa prices continuing to rise 'at least into the near future' - so we need to focus on factors that would sustain or worsen the supply shortage and demand increase that are currently driving prices up.
To strengthen this argument, we need new information that either:
We're looking for evidence that the current trend isn't just temporary but has staying power.
'Ground cocoa beans can be stored for long periods before they spoil.' This doesn't strengthen the argument about future price increases. If anything, this might suggest that existing stockpiles of ground cocoa could help meet current demand, potentially moderating price increases rather than supporting continued rises.
'Several European and North American manufacturers that use cocoa have recently improved their processing capacity.' This actually works against the conclusion. Improved processing capacity means manufacturers could be more efficient with their cocoa usage, potentially reducing demand pressure. This would weaken rather than strengthen the prediction of continued price increases.
'It takes new cocoa trees five or six years before they start bearing fruit.' This directly strengthens the argument. The current supply shortage is caused by weather damage to existing cocoa production. Even if farmers immediately planted new trees to replace damaged ones, those trees wouldn't produce cocoa for 5-6 years. This means the supply shortage can't be quickly resolved, making it much more likely that prices will continue rising in the near future as the analysts predict.
'Governments in Europe and North America are likely to change current restrictions on cocoa imports.' This doesn't clearly strengthen the argument. Loosening import restrictions might actually increase cocoa supply to these regions, which could help moderate price increases rather than support continued rises.
'Historically, cocoa production has varied widely from year to year.' This provides general background information but doesn't specifically support why prices will continue to rise in the near future. Historical variability doesn't tell us whether the current supply problems will persist or be resolved quickly.