Newspaper article from 2007: The use of ethanol as a fuel supplement is expected to increase sharply in the next...

GMAT Critical Reasoning : (CR) Questions

Source: Mock

Critical Reasoning

Weaken

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Newspaper article from 2007: The use of ethanol as a fuel supplement is expected to increase sharply in the next few years. In the United States, ethanol is produced primarily from maize-the principal ingredient in most cattle feed. And the increased demand for maize will raise its price. So unless another crop becomes the primary source of ethanol, the cost of cattle feed may be expected to increase considerably.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the above argument?

The increased demand for ethanol will benefit disproportionately those regions of the United States where maize is grown.

The principal byproduct of ethanol production from maize is an excellent source of cattle feed.

Farmers could recover most of their increased feed costs by raising beef and milk prices.

Increased use of ethanol as a fuel supplement will reduce the overall demand for gasoline that is not supplemented with ethanol.

Farmers can shift to other areas of agriculture if the cost of raising cattle increases.

Solution

Passage Analysis:

Text from Passage	Analysis
The use of ethanol as a fuel supplement is expected to increase sharply in the next few years.	What it says: Ethanol use as fuel will grow a lot soon What it does: Sets up the main trend we need to think about What it is: Author's forecast Visualization: Current ethanol use: 100 units → Expected future use: 500+ units
In the United States, ethanol is produced primarily from maize-the principal ingredient in most cattle feed.	What it says: Maize is the main source for both ethanol production and cattle feed What it does: Shows the connection between ethanol and cattle feed through maize What it is: Factual background Visualization: Maize supply splits: 60% cattle feed + 30% ethanol + 10% other uses
And the increased demand for maize will raise its price.	What it says: More demand for maize means higher maize prices What it does: Links the ethanol trend to economic consequences for maize What it is: Economic reasoning Visualization: Maize demand: Current 100 units → Future 200+ units Maize price: Current $5/bushel → Future $8-10/bushel
So unless another crop becomes the primary source of ethanol, the cost of cattle feed may be expected to increase considerably.	What it says: Cattle feed costs will go up unless we switch to a different crop for ethanol What it does: Draws the final conclusion by connecting all the previous pieces What it is: Author's main conclusion

Argument Flow:

The argument starts with a prediction about ethanol demand increasing, then shows how this connects to cattle feed through their shared ingredient (maize), explains that higher demand leads to higher prices, and concludes that cattle feed costs will rise unless we find an alternative crop for ethanol.

Main Conclusion:

The cost of cattle feed will increase considerably unless another crop becomes the primary source of ethanol.

Logical Structure:

This is a chain of cause and effect: Rising ethanol demand → Higher maize demand → Higher maize prices → Higher cattle feed costs. The conclusion follows logically if we accept that maize is the key link between ethanol and cattle feed, and that demand drives prices.

Prethinking:

Question type:

Weaken - We need to find information that would reduce our belief in the conclusion that cattle feed costs will increase considerably due to increased ethanol demand for maize

Precision of Claims

The argument makes specific claims about quantities (sharp increase in ethanol use), relationships (maize as primary source for both ethanol and cattle feed), and economic causation (increased demand leads to higher prices leads to higher cattle feed costs)

Strategy

To weaken this argument, we need to find scenarios that break the causal chain from increased ethanol demand to higher cattle feed costs. We can attack: 1) The supply side - maybe maize supply can increase to meet demand, 2) The demand side - maybe cattle feed demand could decrease or find alternatives, or 3) The price transmission - maybe higher maize prices won't necessarily translate to much higher cattle feed costs

Answer Choices Explained

The increased demand for ethanol will benefit disproportionately those regions of the United States where maize is grown.

This choice discusses regional economic benefits for maize-growing areas, but it doesn't challenge the core argument about cattle feed costs increasing. Even if certain regions benefit economically, the fundamental relationship between ethanol demand, maize prices, and cattle feed costs remains intact. This is irrelevant to weakening the conclusion.

The principal byproduct of ethanol production from maize is an excellent source of cattle feed.

This directly attacks the argument's conclusion by introducing a factor the author didn't consider. If ethanol production creates cattle feed as a byproduct, then increased ethanol production (which uses more maize) simultaneously increases the supply of cattle feed. This means that even if maize prices rise, the additional cattle feed supply from ethanol production could offset the cost increases, making cattle feed potentially cheaper or at least not 'considerably' more expensive. This breaks the causal chain and significantly weakens the argument.

Farmers could recover most of their increased feed costs by raising beef and milk prices.

This choice doesn't challenge whether cattle feed costs will actually increase - it just suggests farmers can pass costs to consumers. The argument's conclusion about cattle feed costs increasing considerably would still hold true; this choice only addresses the economic impact on farmers, not the validity of the price increase prediction.

Increased use of ethanol as a fuel supplement will reduce the overall demand for gasoline that is not supplemented with ethanol.

This discusses the relationship between ethanol and gasoline demand, which is completely outside the scope of the argument about cattle feed costs. The author's reasoning chain from ethanol demand to cattle feed costs remains unaffected by what happens to gasoline demand.

Farmers can shift to other areas of agriculture if the cost of raising cattle increases.

Similar to Choice C, this doesn't challenge whether cattle feed costs will increase - it only suggests farmers have alternative options. The argument's prediction about rising cattle feed costs due to increased maize demand for ethanol remains valid; this choice just addresses potential farmer responses to the situation.

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