Last year the rate of inflation was 1.2%, but for the current year it has been 4%. We can conclude...

GMAT Critical Reasoning : (CR) Questions

Source: Official Guide

Critical Reasoning

Weaken

MEDIUM

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Last year the rate of inflation was \(1.2\%\), but for the current year it has been \(4\%\). We can conclude that inflation is on an upward trend and the rate will be still higher next year.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the conclusion above?

The inflation figures were computed on the basis of a representative sample of economic data rather than all of the available data.

Last year a dip in oil prices brought inflation temporarily below its recent stable annual level of \(\mathrm{4\%}\).

Increases in the pay of some workers are tied to the level of inflation, and at an inflation rate of \(\mathrm{4\%}\) or above, these pay raises constitute a force causing further inflation.

The \(\mathrm{1.2\%}\) rate of inflation last year represented a \(\mathrm{10}\)-year low.

Government intervention cannot affect the rate of inflation to any significant degree.

Solution

Passage Analysis:

Text from Passage	Analysis
Last year the rate of inflation was 1.2 percent, but for the current year it has been 4 percent.	What it says: Inflation jumped from 1.2% last year to 4% this year What it does: Sets up a comparison showing inflation has increased significantly What it is: Factual data/premises Visualization: Last Year: 1.2% → This Year: 4% (more than tripled)
We can conclude that inflation is on an upward trend and the rate will be still higher next year.	What it says: Based on the data, inflation will keep rising and be even higher next year What it does: Makes a prediction about the future using the two-year comparison as evidence What it is: Author's conclusion Visualization: Last Year: 1.2% → This Year: 4% → Next Year: >4% (predicted trend)

Argument Flow:

The argument starts with concrete data showing inflation rates for two consecutive years, then uses this limited sample to predict a continuing upward trend.

Main Conclusion:

Inflation is on an upward trend and will be even higher next year.

Logical Structure:

The author uses a two-data-point comparison (1.2% to 4%) as evidence to support a broader claim about an ongoing trend and future predictions. This is a classic case of drawing a sweeping conclusion from very limited data.

Prethinking:

Question type:

Weaken - We need to find information that would make us less confident that inflation will continue rising and be higher next year

Precision of Claims

The conclusion makes a specific prediction about future inflation rates based on a two-year trend, claiming inflation is on an 'upward trend' and will be 'still higher next year'

Strategy

To weaken this conclusion, we need to find information that breaks the assumed pattern or shows why the two-year increase doesn't necessarily predict future increases. We should look for alternative explanations for this year's increase or reasons why the trend might not continue

Answer Choices Explained

The inflation figures were computed on the basis of a representative sample of economic data rather than all of the available data.

This choice discusses how inflation figures were computed using a representative sample rather than all available data. However, this doesn't weaken the conclusion about future trends. Even if the data collection method has some limitations, we have no reason to believe the trend identified would be different, and sample-based calculations are standard practice in economics. This doesn't provide an alternative explanation for why the trend might not continue.

Last year a dip in oil prices brought inflation temporarily below its recent stable annual level of \(\mathrm{4\%}\).

This directly attacks the argument's foundation by explaining that last year's low \(\mathrm{1.2\%}\) inflation was due to a temporary factor (oil price dip) that brought inflation below its normal stable level of \(\mathrm{4\%}\). This suggests that this year's \(\mathrm{4\%}\) isn't part of an upward trend but rather a return to normal levels. If \(\mathrm{4\%}\) is the stable baseline, there's no reason to expect inflation to keep rising next year. This effectively eliminates the supposed 'trend' by showing last year was an anomaly.

Increases in the pay of some workers are tied to the level of inflation, and at an inflation rate of \(\mathrm{4\%}\) or above, these pay raises constitute a force causing further inflation.

This choice actually strengthens rather than weakens the argument. It provides a mechanism (pay raises tied to inflation) that would cause inflation to continue rising once it hits \(\mathrm{4\%}\) or above. This supports the conclusion that inflation will be even higher next year, making it the opposite of what we need.

The \(\mathrm{1.2\%}\) rate of inflation last year represented a \(\mathrm{10}\)-year low.

While this tells us that \(\mathrm{1.2\%}\) was a 10-year low, it doesn't explain why the increase occurred or whether it will continue. The argument's conclusion about future trends could still be valid even if last year was unusually low. This provides context but doesn't weaken the prediction about next year.

Government intervention cannot affect the rate of inflation to any significant degree.

This statement about government intervention doesn't directly relate to whether inflation will continue its upward trend. It neither explains the current increase nor provides reason to doubt future increases. The trend could continue regardless of government intervention capabilities.

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