Insect infestations in certain cotton-growing regions of the world have caused dramatic increases in the price of cotton on the...
GMAT Critical Reasoning : (CR) Questions
Insect infestations in certain cotton-growing regions of the world have caused dramatic increases in the price of cotton on the world market. By contrast, the price of soybeans has long remained stable. Knowing that cotton plants mature quickly, many soybean growers in Ortovia plan to cease growing soybeans and begin raising cotton instead, thereby taking advantage of the high price of cotton to increase their income significantly, at least over the next several years.
Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the plan's chances for success?
Passage Analysis:
| Text from Passage | Analysis |
| Insect infestations in certain cotton-growing regions of the world have caused dramatic increases in the price of cotton on the world market. |
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| By contrast, the price of soybeans has long remained stable. |
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| Knowing that cotton plants mature quickly, many soybean growers in Ortovia plan to cease growing soybeans and begin raising cotton instead, thereby taking advantage of the high price of cotton to increase their income significantly, at least over the next several years. |
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Argument Flow:
The argument starts by establishing market conditions (high cotton prices vs stable soybean prices), then presents the farmers' plan to switch crops to take advantage of this price difference, using the quick maturation of cotton as supporting evidence for feasibility.
Main Conclusion:
Soybean growers in Ortovia should switch to growing cotton to significantly increase their income over the next several years.
Logical Structure:
The plan relies on three key assumptions: (1) high cotton prices will continue, (2) the quick maturation of cotton makes switching feasible, and (3) Ortovia farmers can successfully grow cotton and access the same high-price markets. The argument assumes that current market conditions will persist and that switching crops is straightforward.
Prethinking:
Question type:
Weaken - We need to find information that reduces belief in the conclusion that Ortovian soybean farmers will successfully increase their income by switching to cotton production
Precision of Claims
The plan's success depends on specific conditions: farmers can successfully grow cotton in Ortovia, high cotton prices will continue for several years, and the income increase will be significant enough to justify the switch
Strategy
Look for scenarios that attack the key assumptions behind the farmers' plan. We need to find what could go wrong with their reasoning about switching crops - either problems with growing cotton specifically in Ortovia, issues with the sustainability of high cotton prices, or hidden costs/challenges they haven't considered
This choice tells us that soybean cultivation costs have increased and will continue rising. Actually, this strengthens rather than weakens the farmers' plan. If growing soybeans is becoming more expensive, this gives farmers even more reason to switch away from soybeans to cotton. Higher soybean costs would make the economic case for switching crops even stronger, not weaker.
This choice reveals that a new, inexpensive pesticide effectively eliminates the insects causing cotton crop damage. This severely weakens the plan because the farmers' entire strategy depends on cotton prices staying high due to insect-related supply shortages. If this pesticide becomes widely used, cotton production will return to normal levels, causing prices to drop significantly. The economic advantage the farmers hoped to capture would disappear, making their crop switch unprofitable.
This states that cotton demand hasn't increased sharply in recent years. While this provides some context, it doesn't directly weaken the plan. The farmers are banking on supply-side issues (insect damage) keeping prices high, not on increased demand. Even with stable demand, reduced supply from insect damage can still maintain high prices, so this doesn't significantly impact their strategy.
This tells us consumers view cotton as essential and will pay higher prices for cotton goods. This actually supports the farmers' plan by suggesting that high cotton prices are sustainable since consumers will continue buying despite increased costs. This indicates strong price resilience, which would help maintain the profitability the farmers are seeking.
This informs us that the cotton-infesting insects don't attack soybean plants. This information is essentially irrelevant to the farmers' plan. We already know they're planning to switch completely from soybeans to cotton, so whether insects affect soybeans doesn't impact their strategy of capitalizing on high cotton prices.