In the past the country of Malvernia has relied heavily on imported oil. Malvernia recently implemented a program to convert...
GMAT Critical Reasoning : (CR) Questions
In the past the country of Malvernia has relied heavily on imported oil. Malvernia recently implemented a program to convert heating systems from oil to natural gas. Malvernia currently produces more natural gas each year than it uses, and oil production in Malvernian oil fields is increasing at a steady pace. If these trends in fuel production and usage continue, therefore, Malvernian reliance on foreign sources for fuel is likely to decline soon.
Which of the following would it be most useful to establish in evaluating the argument?
Passage Analysis:
| Text from Passage | Analysis |
| In the past the country of Malvernia has relied heavily on imported oil. |
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| Malvernia recently implemented a program to convert heating systems from oil to natural gas. |
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| Malvernia currently produces more natural gas each year than it uses, and oil production in Malvernian oil fields is increasing at a steady pace. |
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| If these trends in fuel production and usage continue, therefore, Malvernian reliance on foreign sources for fuel is likely to decline soon. |
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Argument Flow:
The argument starts by establishing Malvernia's historical dependence on imported oil, then presents two key changes: a policy shift to natural gas heating and increasing domestic production of both natural gas and oil. These premises are used to predict reduced foreign fuel dependence.
Main Conclusion:
Malvernia's reliance on foreign fuel sources will likely decline soon if current production and usage trends continue.
Logical Structure:
The conclusion relies on the assumption that the combination of switching to natural gas (which they produce in surplus) plus increasing domestic oil production will outpace their overall fuel needs, reducing import requirements. The logic connects past dependence → current positive changes → future energy independence.
Prethinking:
Question type:
Evaluate - We need to find what information would be most useful to determine whether the conclusion is sound. This means looking for key assumptions that could either strengthen or weaken the argument when we get more info about them.
Precision of Claims
The argument makes specific claims about quantities (Malvernia produces MORE natural gas than it uses), activities (converting heating systems, increasing oil production), and trends (steady pace of increase). The conclusion predicts a future decline in foreign fuel reliance.
Strategy
For evaluate questions, we need to identify the key assumptions the argument relies on. Then we create scenarios where getting more information about these assumptions would either make us more or less confident in the conclusion. We're looking for information gaps that, when filled, would significantly impact our belief in whether Malvernia will actually reduce its foreign fuel dependence.
This asks about when oil production might exceed natural gas production in Malvernia. While this could be relevant to long-term energy planning, it doesn't directly help us evaluate whether foreign fuel reliance will decline soon. The argument's conclusion depends on reducing total fuel imports, not on which domestic fuel source produces more. This comparison between domestic production levels doesn't address the core issue of import reduction.
This asks whether Malvernia is among the countries most reliant on imported oil. This information about Malvernia's relative position compared to other countries doesn't help us evaluate whether their own reliance will decline. Whether they're the most dependent or moderately dependent, the argument's logic about future trends remains the same. This is about comparative ranking rather than absolute change.
This asks about the proportion of energy needs met by hydroelectric, solar, and nuclear power. While renewable energy sources could affect overall fuel demand, the argument specifically focuses on oil and natural gas trends. Information about other energy sources, while potentially relevant to the broader energy picture, doesn't directly help evaluate the specific claim about declining foreign fuel reliance based on the oil-to-gas conversion and increased domestic production.
This is the most useful information to establish. The argument assumes that converting heating systems from oil to natural gas will reduce oil consumption enough to decrease foreign fuel reliance. However, if oil use for electricity and transportation is increasing significantly, this could completely offset the savings from heating system conversions. Since electricity and transportation are major oil-consuming sectors, knowing whether their consumption is rising would directly tell us whether the overall oil demand reduction assumption is valid.
This asks whether any heating systems have already been converted. While this could tell us about the program's current progress, it doesn't help evaluate the argument's forward-looking conclusion. The argument already states that a conversion program was 'recently implemented' - knowing the current conversion status doesn't address whether the projected trends will actually lead to reduced foreign fuel dependence.