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In 1987 sinusitis was the most common chronic medical condition in the United States, followed by arthritis and high blood pressure, in that order. The incidence rates for both arthritis and high blood pressure increase with age, but the incidence rate for sinusitis is the same for people of all ages. The average age of the United States population will increase between 1987 and 2000.
Which of the following conclusions can be most properly drawn about chronic medical conditions in the United States from the information given above?
| Passage Statement | Visualization and Linkage |
|---|---|
| In 1987 sinusitis was the most common chronic medical condition in the United States, followed by arthritis and high blood pressure, in that order. | Establishes 1987 baseline ranking:
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| The incidence rates for both arthritis and high blood pressure increase with age, but the incidence rate for sinusitis is the same for people of all ages. | Age-dependency patterns:
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| The average age of the United States population will increase between 1987 and 2000. | Demographic shift prediction:
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| Overall Implication | Paradox revealed: The #1 condition (sinusitis) cannot benefit from the major demographic trend, while #2 and #3 (arthritis, high BP) will see boosted rates due to aging population. This demographic advantage for age-dependent conditions will likely change the 1987 rankings by 2000. |
Inference: By 2000, arthritis and high blood pressure will likely become more common relative to sinusitis compared to their 1987 positions.
Supporting Logic: Since the average age of the US population will increase between 1987 and 2000, and arthritis and high blood pressure rates increase with age while sinusitis rates remain constant across all ages, the aging population will disproportionately boost the prevalence of arthritis and high blood pressure. Therefore, these two age-dependent conditions will gain ground relative to sinusitis in the rankings.
Clarification Note: The passage supports that the relative standings will shift due to demographic changes, but does not provide enough information to definitively predict whether arthritis or high blood pressure will surpass sinusitis as the most common condition by 2000.
'Sinusitis will be more common than either arthritis or high blood pressure in 2000.' This goes too far beyond what we can conclude. While we know arthritis and high blood pressure rates increase with age (and the population is aging), we don't have enough specific data about the magnitude of these increases to definitively predict whether they'll surpass sinusitis by 2000. The passage suggests they'll gain ground relative to sinusitis, but we can't conclude sinusitis will definitely remain #1.
'Arthritis will be the most common chronic medical condition in 2000.' This is too specific and unsupported. While arthritis rates will likely increase due to the aging population, we have no data about how much arthritis rates increase with age compared to high blood pressure rates, nor whether either condition will actually surpass sinusitis by 2000. We can't determine which specific condition will be most common.
'The average age of people suffering from sinusitis will increase between 1987 and 2000.' This is the correct inference. Since sinusitis affects all age groups at the same rate and sinusitis sufferers are drawn from the general population, when the average age of the general population increases, the average age of sinusitis sufferers must also increase proportionally. This follows directly from the given information.
'Fewer people will suffer from sinusitis in 2000 than suffered from it in 1987.' This contradicts basic demographic logic. Even though sinusitis rates don't increase with age, the overall population will likely grow between 1987 and 2000, which would mean more total cases of sinusitis, not fewer. Nothing in the passage suggests the total number of sinusitis cases will decrease.
'A majority of the population will suffer from at least one of the medical conditions mentioned above by the year 2000.' This makes an unsupported quantitative claim. The passage gives us relative rankings and trends but provides no specific percentages or rates that would allow us to calculate whether these three conditions combined will affect a majority of the population.