Exports of United States wood pulp will rise considerably during this year. The reason for the rise is that the...
GMAT Critical Reasoning : (CR) Questions
Exports of United States wood pulp will rise considerably during this year. The reason for the rise is that the falling value of the dollar will make it cheaper for paper manufacturers in Japan and Western Europe to buy American wood pulp than to get it from any other source.
Which of the following is an assumption made in drawing the conclusion above?
Passage Analysis:
| Text from Passage | Analysis |
| Exports of United States wood pulp will rise considerably during this year. |
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| The reason for the rise is that the falling value of the dollar will make it cheaper for paper manufacturers in Japan and Western Europe to buy American wood pulp than to get it from any other source. |
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Argument Flow:
The argument starts with a prediction about increased wood pulp exports, then immediately provides the reasoning behind this prediction by explaining how currency changes affect international buying decisions.
Main Conclusion:
US wood pulp exports will rise considerably this year.
Logical Structure:
The argument assumes that when US wood pulp becomes the cheapest option due to the falling dollar, foreign manufacturers will actually switch to buying from the US rather than sticking with their current suppliers for other reasons like reliability, logistics, or existing contracts.
Prethinking:
Question type:
Assumption - We need to find what the author must believe to be true for the conclusion to follow from the premise. This is about identifying gaps in the logical reasoning.
Precision of Claims
The conclusion makes a quantitative claim ('rise considerably') about a specific activity (US wood pulp exports) with a specific timeframe (this year). The premise focuses on cost comparison between US and other sources for specific regions (Japan and Western Europe).
Strategy
Since this is an assumption question, we need to identify ways the conclusion could be falsified while respecting the given facts. The author claims that because the falling dollar makes US wood pulp cheaper than other sources for Japanese and European manufacturers, US exports will rise considerably. We need to find what gaps exist between 'being the cheapest option' and 'exports rising considerably.' We should look for missing links about demand responsiveness, supply capacity, alternative buyers, and purchasing behavior.
This choice suggests that we need factory output increases in Japan and Western Europe for US exports to rise. However, this isn't necessary for the conclusion. Even with constant production levels, manufacturers could still switch from other wood pulp sources to cheaper US wood pulp, leading to increased US exports. The argument is about market share shifts due to price changes, not about overall market growth.
This is the correct assumption. The argument relies on the idea that when US wood pulp becomes the cheapest option, foreign manufacturers will switch to buying from the US. But this only works if US wood pulp quality meets their manufacturing standards. If the quality were inadequate, being the cheapest wouldn't matter - manufacturers wouldn't buy unusable materials. This assumption bridges the gap between 'cheapest price' and 'increased exports.'
This choice about preference without cost considerations isn't necessary. The argument doesn't require that manufacturers would prefer US wood pulp for non-price reasons. It only requires that they'll choose US wood pulp when it becomes the cheapest viable option. Manufacturers could be indifferent about the source as long as quality and price work for them.
This choice about demand not increasing sharply isn't required for the conclusion. Even if demand for paper products increases, US wood pulp exports could still rise considerably due to the price advantage from the falling dollar. Increased demand would actually make the conclusion even stronger, not weaker.
This choice about US production levels isn't necessary for the conclusion about exports. Even if US production increases sharply, exports could still rise considerably if foreign demand increases even more due to the price advantage. The argument focuses on export flows, not domestic production capacity.