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Entomologist: Beginning around 2006, many honeybee colonies started dying mysteriously, a condition known as collapse disorder. Bee autopsies revealed a virus called IAPV in almost all colonies with symptoms of colony collapse disorder, but in only one apparently healthy colony. Thus, IAPV must be the cause of the disorder.
In order to assess the strength of the entomologist's argument, it would be most helpful to know which of the following?
| Text from Passage | Analysis |
| Beginning around 2006, many honeybee colonies started dying mysteriously, a condition known as collapse disorder. |
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| Bee autopsies revealed a virus called IAPV in almost all colonies with symptoms of colony collapse disorder, but in only one apparently healthy colony. |
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| Thus, IAPV must be the cause of the disorder. |
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The entomologist starts with a problem (mysterious bee deaths), presents evidence (virus found in dead colonies but not healthy ones), and jumps to a causal conclusion.
IAPV virus must be the cause of colony collapse disorder.
This is a classic correlation-to-causation argument. The entomologist sees that IAPV appears in dead colonies but rarely in healthy ones, then assumes this correlation means IAPV causes the deaths. The logic assumes that just because two things happen together (virus + death), one must cause the other.
Evaluate - We need to find information that would help us assess whether the entomologist's causal conclusion (IAPV causes colony collapse disorder) is strong or weak
The entomologist makes a definitive causal claim ('IAPV must be the cause') based on correlation evidence (IAPV found in almost all dead colonies but only one healthy colony)
Since this is an evaluate question, we need to think of assumptions the entomologist is making. Then we can create scenarios where these assumptions, when taken to extremes, would either strongly support or strongly undermine the conclusion. We should focus on gaps between the correlation evidence and the causal conclusion.