Some of the books on a certain shelf are in English, and the rest of the books are in Spanish....
GMAT Data Sufficiency : (DS) Questions
Some of the books on a certain shelf are in English, and the rest of the books are in Spanish. If \(\mathrm{2}\) books are to be chosen at random from the shelf and neither book is returned to the shelf, what is the probability that at least one of the \(\mathrm{2}\) books chosen will be English?
- On the shelf, the ratio of the number of books in Spanish to the number of books in English is \(3:1\).
- There are fewer than \(\mathrm{20}\) books on the shelf.
Understanding the Question
We need to find the probability that at least one of 2 randomly chosen books will be English.
Let's clarify what we know:
- Books on shelf are either English or Spanish (no other languages)
- We're selecting 2 books without replacement
- We want P(at least one English book)
Key probability insight: \(\mathrm{P(at\,least\,one\,English)} = 1 - \mathrm{P(both\,Spanish)}\)
Here's the crucial point: To find a unique probability value, we need the exact number of Spanish and English books. A ratio alone won't suffice because the same ratio with different absolute numbers yields different probabilities when selecting without replacement.
Analyzing Statement 1
Statement 1 tells us: The ratio of Spanish to English books is 3:1.
This means for every 3 Spanish books, there's 1 English book. Our possibilities include:
- 3 Spanish, 1 English (4 total)
- 6 Spanish, 2 English (8 total)
- 9 Spanish, 3 English (12 total)
- And so on...
Let's test two scenarios to demonstrate they yield different probabilities:
Scenario 1: 3 Spanish, 1 English (4 books total)
- P(both Spanish) = \(\frac{3}{4} \times \frac{2}{3} = \frac{6}{12} = \frac{1}{2}\)
- P(at least one English) = \(1 - \frac{1}{2} = \)\(\frac{1}{2}\)
Scenario 2: 6 Spanish, 2 English (8 books total)
- P(both Spanish) = \(\frac{6}{8} \times \frac{5}{7} = \frac{30}{56} = \frac{15}{28}\)
- P(at least one English) = \(1 - \frac{15}{28} = \frac{13}{28} \approx \)0.464
Since \(\frac{1}{2} \neq \frac{13}{28}\), we've proven that different scenarios with the same 3:1 ratio produce different probabilities.
[STOP - Not Sufficient!] Statement 1 is NOT sufficient.
This eliminates answer choices A and D.
Analyzing Statement 2
Important: We now forget Statement 1 completely and analyze Statement 2 independently.
Statement 2 tells us: There are fewer than 20 books on the shelf.
This constraint gives us an upper bound but reveals nothing about the Spanish-English distribution. Consider these possibilities:
- 19 books: all Spanish, 0 English → P(at least one English) = \(0\)
- 10 books: 5 Spanish, 5 English → P(at least one English) = \(\frac{3}{4}\)
- 15 books: 14 Spanish, 1 English → P(at least one English) = \(\frac{2}{15}\)
Without knowing the distribution, we cannot determine a unique probability.
[STOP - Not Sufficient!] Statement 2 is NOT sufficient.
This eliminates answer choices B and D (already eliminated).
Combining Both Statements
Now we use both pieces of information:
- Spanish:English ratio is 3:1 (Statement 1)
- Total books < 20 (Statement 2)
With a 3:1 ratio, the total number of books must be a multiple of 4 (since 3 + 1 = 4). Given the constraint of fewer than 20 books, our possible totals are: 4, 8, 12, or 16.
This gives us exactly four possible scenarios:
- 4 books total: 3 Spanish, 1 English → P(at least one English) = \(\frac{1}{2}\)
- 8 books total: 6 Spanish, 2 English → P(at least one English) = \(\frac{13}{28}\)
- 12 books total: 9 Spanish, 3 English
- 16 books total: 12 Spanish, 4 English
We've already demonstrated that the 4-book and 8-book scenarios yield different probabilities (\(\frac{1}{2}\) vs \(\frac{13}{28}\)).
Why do different totals give different probabilities? In "without replacement" problems, removing a book has a proportionally larger impact on smaller totals. Think of it this way: removing 1 book from 4 changes the pool by 25%, but removing 1 book from 16 changes it by only 6.25%.
Since we have multiple valid scenarios that produce different probability values, the statements together are NOT sufficient.
[STOP - Not Sufficient!] Even combined, we cannot determine a unique answer.
This eliminates answer choices A, B, C, and D.
The Answer: E
Even with both pieces of information, we cannot determine a unique probability because different valid book totals (4, 8, 12, or 16) yield different probability values.
Answer Choice E: "The statements together are not sufficient."