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Some of the books on a certain shelf are in English, and the rest of the books are in Spanish. If \(\mathrm{2}\) books are to be chosen at random from the shelf and neither book is returned to the shelf, what is the probability that at least one of the \(\mathrm{2}\) books chosen will be English?
We need to find the probability that at least one of 2 randomly chosen books will be English.
Let's clarify what we know:
Key probability insight: \(\mathrm{P(at\,least\,one\,English)} = 1 - \mathrm{P(both\,Spanish)}\)
Here's the crucial point: To find a unique probability value, we need the exact number of Spanish and English books. A ratio alone won't suffice because the same ratio with different absolute numbers yields different probabilities when selecting without replacement.
Statement 1 tells us: The ratio of Spanish to English books is 3:1.
This means for every 3 Spanish books, there's 1 English book. Our possibilities include:
Let's test two scenarios to demonstrate they yield different probabilities:
Scenario 1: 3 Spanish, 1 English (4 books total)
Scenario 2: 6 Spanish, 2 English (8 books total)
Since \(\frac{1}{2} \neq \frac{13}{28}\), we've proven that different scenarios with the same 3:1 ratio produce different probabilities.
[STOP - Not Sufficient!] Statement 1 is NOT sufficient.
This eliminates answer choices A and D.
Important: We now forget Statement 1 completely and analyze Statement 2 independently.
Statement 2 tells us: There are fewer than 20 books on the shelf.
This constraint gives us an upper bound but reveals nothing about the Spanish-English distribution. Consider these possibilities:
Without knowing the distribution, we cannot determine a unique probability.
[STOP - Not Sufficient!] Statement 2 is NOT sufficient.
This eliminates answer choices B and D (already eliminated).
Now we use both pieces of information:
With a 3:1 ratio, the total number of books must be a multiple of 4 (since 3 + 1 = 4). Given the constraint of fewer than 20 books, our possible totals are: 4, 8, 12, or 16.
This gives us exactly four possible scenarios:
We've already demonstrated that the 4-book and 8-book scenarios yield different probabilities (\(\frac{1}{2}\) vs \(\frac{13}{28}\)).
Why do different totals give different probabilities? In "without replacement" problems, removing a book has a proportionally larger impact on smaller totals. Think of it this way: removing 1 book from 4 changes the pool by 25%, but removing 1 book from 16 changes it by only 6.25%.
Since we have multiple valid scenarios that produce different probability values, the statements together are NOT sufficient.
[STOP - Not Sufficient!] Even combined, we cannot determine a unique answer.
This eliminates answer choices A, B, C, and D.
Even with both pieces of information, we cannot determine a unique probability because different valid book totals (4, 8, 12, or 16) yield different probability values.
Answer Choice E: "The statements together are not sufficient."