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In a study conducted over several years, seabird and domesticated cat populations on a geographically isolated island changed from year to year. Researchers found that over the course of the study, the relationship (R) between seabirds and domesticated cats was such that the island's seabird population was three times as likely to decrease from the previous year if the island's domesticated cat population increased (even if slightly) during the same year. The researchers are about to begin a second, follow-up study with the same duration as the first study. Based on recent trends, the researchers made the following projections: R will hold and the island's domesticated cat population will decrease during more years of the second study than it did in their first study.
Assuming that the information above is true, select for Can be inferred as true the statement that can be most reasonably inferred as true from the information provided, and select for Can be inferred as false the statement that can be most reasonably inferred as false from the information provided. Make only two selections, one in each column.
If the researchers' projections are accurate, the island's seabird population is likely to increase during more years of the second study than it did in the first.
During the first study, most years had an increase in the island's domesticated cat population.
If the researchers' projections are accurate, the island's seabird population is likely to increase during most of the years of the second study.
During the first study, the island's seabird population decreased only when the island's domesticated cat population increased.
During the first study, most years during which the island's seabird population decreased were years during which the island's domesticated cat population increased.
| Passage Statement | Analysis & Implications |
| "Relationship (R): seabird population was three times as likely to decrease from previous year if cat population increased" |
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| "Projections: R will hold and cat population will decrease during more years of second study than first study" |
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Choice 1: "If projections accurate, seabird population likely to increase during more years of second study than first"
Choice 2: "During first study, most years had increase in cat population"
Choice 3: "If projections accurate, seabird population likely to increase during most years of second study"
Choice 4: "During first study, seabird population decreased only when cat population increased"
Choice 5: "During first study, most years when seabirds decreased were years when cats increased"
The key insight is recognizing that "3x as likely" means probability, not exclusivity. Seabirds can still decrease without cat increases, just less frequently.